During the recent PDI webinar we were asked, beyond yield, diversification, and deployment, what private credit areas are most vulnerable? What scenarios could likely create problems? These questions are excellent ones, because they allow us to tease out the differences among private capital managers, not just throw the entire asset class out with the bath water.
For inexperienced or under-resourced managers there are potential pitfalls. As we discussed last week, under-deployment is a major problem for investors. Unlike, for example, the broadly syndicated market, where CLO managers can access a relatively large number of well-traded secondary loan opportunities, middle market loans don’t trade...
“It’s been a tough stretch for LBOs. I think that’s behind us.” – Bruce Richards, chairman, Marathon Asset Management LP (Bloomberg).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Slow as it Goes
Quarterly direct lending deals peaked 2Q 2024, slowed since. Source: PitchBook LCD, US data through Sept. 16, 2025.
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Chart of the Week: Where’s the Beef?
A PitchBook survey showed private credit participants most worried about finding new deals. Source: PitchBook/LCD, data through Sept. 16, 2025
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Chart of the Week: Business Service as Usual
Business services and tech remain strong sectors for LBO candidates. Source: KBRA DLD
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Chart of the Week: Relative Compression
Private credit yields have narrowed since 2023, but less than for single-Bs. Source: KBRA DLD
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Chart of the Week: Tariff Drag
Growth forecasts for this year and next are well below last December’s estimates. Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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Chart of the Week: All-Weather Buyouts
While direct lending was subdued with rate liftoff, it’s recovered despite tariff noise. Source: DLD KBRA
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Features
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 9/29/2025
US CLO issuance increases to US$53bn in 3Q, driven by strong MM/PD issuance New-issue US CLO volume amounted to US$53bn in 3Q25 via 106 deals, up 2% from 2Q25’s US$52.1bn and 34% from 3Q24’s US$39.6bn, marking the highest quarter since 4Q24…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 9/29/2025
U.S. Private Credit: Sizing Up Defaults Click here to download report. Small issuers generating less than $25 million EBITDA defaulted at more than double the rate of larger issuers in Fitch Ratings’ Private Credit Default Rate (PCDR) universe during the trailing twelve months (TTM) to 2Q25…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
The Pulse of Private Equity – 9/29/2025
PE exit/investment ratio Download PitchBook’s Report here. Sponsor-to-sponsor exit activity dipped on an absolute basis in Q2, along with the moderate decrease in total quarterly exits, but maintained its majority share of middle-market exit activity…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 9/29/2025
Notes from New York What’s on the minds of private debt professionals? Regulation, market conditions and distressed debt all had an airing at our recent industry event. We noted a few talking points from our recent PDI Network New York Forum: Private markets is in a “deregulatory environment”, according to Jillien Flores, chief advocacy officer…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 9/22/2025
M&A EV/revenue multiple for deals between $25 million and $1 billion Download PitchBook’s Report here. Middle-market valuation multiples are pointing to an increasingly liquid M&A market with valuation expectations broadly aligned with the 2017-2019 range, setting aside the distortions of the pandemic era…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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