This past week we visited our clients and friends in Japan. The last time we did, three months before Covid, that nation’s GDP had ended modestly down 0.2%. During 2020 it plunged 4.3%; about twice as sluggish as the US. Japan’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 to 2.1% and slowed to 1.1% last year. Projections…
Our family winter break in Turks and Caicos last week was highlighted by two discoveries. First, neither of our daughters are particularly interested in water activities. And second, their all-inclusive meal mainstays, despite a world of delicacies, were chicken nuggets and cotton candy. We say this, not to disparage young girls’ dietary or athletic choices….
Over the past twelve months, as Fed rate hikes have taken hold, much attention has been paid to the denominator effect. This is the impact on investors’ portfolios as liquid asset prices have fallen, creating larger-than-anticipated allocations in other areas. For many the over-sized shares are coming in alternatives. Institutional investors set limits based on…
Inflection points are often apparent only in hindsight. While it’s premature to call a top to the current rate and inflation cycle, signs are evident that change is underway. Last week’s Fed rate hike of 25 bps, a deceleration from its previous three monthly moves, is a case in point. At 4.50-4.75% we are within…
After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, our panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.” “We’re having daily conversations with clients about how long to wait,” one reported. ”What won’t change…
As it turns out, there’s no better lens through which to examine the effects of the current economic environment than US middle market M&A activity. As we heard last week from five top investment bankers, a wide range of indicators – including volume, valuations, financing and sector rotation – flashed across the market in the…
Any attempt to predict what the future investing climate will be is bound to be an iffy proposition. This point was driven home to us as we reviewed past candidates for Lead Left Quotes of the Week that didn’t make the cut for one reason or another. For instance, back in May 2021 one CIO…
The beauty of good vacations, aside from their restorative powers, is the opportunity to reflect on the big picture. On the work front, that meant we moved beyond 2022 rates and recessions to a thoughtful consideration of what comes next. Part of that appraisal is how dealmakers will find ways, as they always do, to…
We noted last week the state of play with the Fed’s battle to slay the inflation dragon without also cratering the entire village. The prospect of increasing spreads on top of a five percent-plus benchmark rate has dampened enthusiasm for M&A and financings. Nevertheless we find private equity sponsors in the traditional middle market space…
This week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps at its December meeting, following four consecutive increases of 75 bps. That brings 2022’s number of hikes to seven. The Fed funds rate target now stands at 4.25% – 4.50%. It had begun the year at zero. Critics worried the Fed took too long…