Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively. The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly…
As a long-time observer and amateur practitioner of the game, we enjoy the season when tennis arrives at the hallowed grounds of Wimbledon. It also reminds us how capital markets, like the stately British stadium, evolve beyond decades of tradition into more sophisticated and timely versions. There’s the stark contrast between players, accustomed to hard…
Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors. Nevertheless, April’s “sell America”…
We spoke recently to a C-suite executive of a global specialty chemicals company about how tariffs are affecting his business. He outlined his strategy to expand production in the US, but also how these plans were being stymied by the cost of importing equipment. “There are some things today, cranes for example, that are only…
Those who talk about risks in private credit should also keep in mind that investors always look at relative risk. For example, Moody’s analysts observe that without a sustained downturn since the GFC, “private credit has not been truly tested, only quizzed.” Fair enough. But how did public credit fare over that period? As the…
Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even watching his Mission Impossible and Top Gun acrobatics over the years, we figured riskier sequences involved some kind of green screen technology. Until we saw practice runs for his motorcycle jump on the latest MI…
“Rice supplies in Japan still low, with prices almost doubled since a year ago.” – Headline, Asia News Network. Always attuned to market conditions on the ground, we heard from friends in Tokyo last week that, incredibly, grocery stores were out of rice. The impact of hot, wet weather and dealers hoarding product has sent…
Last week we came to Tokyo for meetings with our investors and friends in the region, as well as participating in S&P’s stellar Structured Finance Seminar 2025. Along with almost 200 attendees we heard senior ratings analysts and leading CLO market participants discuss trends and outlooks for global leveraged finance, CLOs and other securitized strategies. …
We began our visit to Tokyo this week attending S&P’s Structured Finance Seminar 2025. Along with almost 200 Japanese bankers and investors, we heard senior ratings analysts and leading CLO market participants discuss trends and outlooks for global leveraged finance, CLOs and other securitized strategies. Our panel was entitled, “Private Credit, Middle Market CLOs and…
One criticism of private credit goes something like this: “Sure, private credit has a pretty good track record. But that’s because it’s never been tested by a real recession.” The point is valid for most direct lenders. According to one study, only 5% of those managers were around before 2009. But during the past 16…