A major consequence of regulatory reform since the credit crisis has been the reduction of future demand for leveraged loans. As one example, risk retention rules have dramatically impacted the formation of new CLOs. These securitized vehicles currently comprise roughly 60% of the broader US loan market. Banks, of course, have seen their capacity curtailed…
The question of where we are in the business cycle may ultimately be answered only in hindsight. Similarly what triggers the next cycle will likely different than what set off previous downturns. Subprime mortgages, tech, or sovereign defaults will probably not be culprits, though fallen energy credits could certainly qualify. Given the mature recovery, credit…
Timing in private credit investing is an important part of decision making for asset managers. Having a view on where we are in the business cycle and how close we are to the next downturn helps frame decisions on specific credits, particularly those in more cyclical industries. In mezzanine investing, timing is essential. 2006 sub…
Just when we thought we were out of the economic woods with a strong report on April jobless claims (lowest since 1973), there came the 1Q GDP report showing anemic growth of 0.5%. That was enough to send equities down over 1% for the week. This good news-bad news pattern is discouragingly familiar to market…
News reached us last week of a daring nighttime escape from the National Aquarium of New Zealand. An octopus named Inky sneaked out of a small hole in his tank, across the floor, and down a 164-foot drain pipe into Hawke’s Bay. “Didn’t even leave us a message,” said the aquarium manager, Rob Yarrall. What…
The question surrounding the leverage loan pipeline involves many factors. We’ve discussed some of them, including regulatory bank hurdles, uncertainty surrounding the economy, and hesitation by private equity sponsors to pay high multiples. Several readers weighed in with their own perspectives on the slowdown. “First quarter always has some degree of seasonality,” the CEO of…
Last week we discussed the views of various private equity sponsors regarding the question of why the pipeline of middle market leveraged loans seems soft. Over the past several weeks, we’ve also had conversations with a number of key middle market debt arrangers and lenders. Their consensus mirrors that of the PE firms – deal…
With the first quarter of 2016 in the books, we kick off the second with a look at our Chart of the Week. Our content partners at Thomson Reuters LPC report middle market activity with sponsors slumped to $7.3 billion – the lowest level since 2010. Anecdotally mid cap lenders confirm this trend. “We’re pretty…
Last Saturday a friend of ours took advantage of the spring-like weather, wading upstream from his house. Armed with his son’s $14.99 Shakespeare® Salamander rod, a can of worms, a six pack, and a cigar, he sat on a log, waiting for a nibble. Three hours – and zero nibbles – later, a man in…
As we wrap up our series on direct lending in Europe, let’s examine the supply/demand dynamic we expect to drive deal activity for providers and users of private debt. As our Chart of the Week shows, European funds have almost $30 billion in dry powder available to support loans. On the supply side, private equity…