Supply chain issues aren’t limited to bikes and baby formula. As the Fed withdraws liquidity from the banking system and investor cash exits public credit, delivering capital to traditional buyouts and M&A is a challenge… ▶︎ Read Sept 19 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Preqin – North America data) (Any […]
For over a decade, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. That’s because since the Great Recession the Fed has kept interest rates low. Public credit, both loans and bonds, benefited from this support… ▶︎ Read Sept 12 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary […]
We all have a few sad childhood memories. One of ours was coming home for Thanksgiving freshman year to discover our younger brother had traded away our baseball card collection. We gave him a shoebox full of Topps stars that summer. He traded to a friend for a set of Hot Wheels® cars… ▶︎ Read […]
“The easy money has been made; the harder money is left.” That’s how one experienced asset manager characterized the current investing market. It’s fairly typical of trading approaches after a period of low prices… ▶︎ Read Aug 15 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by StockCharts.com) (Any “forward-looking” information may include, among […]
Last week we called the economy a “precession.” But July’s “blowout” labor report – 528,000 jobs added – hardly seems like the prelude to a recession. But a hot job market means higher wages for the Fed to consider before September’s meeting. Offsetting that, though, was July’s lower CPI numbers (8.5%, down from June’s 9.1%)… […]
News reached us last week of the demise of the Choco Taco. Or maybe not. Cousin to the Klondike Bar, this chocolate-nut-waffle-taco-vanilla-fudge-ice-cream novelty seemed to be yet another victim of supply-chain issues… ▶︎ Read Aug 1 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysisrence Board, Bloomberg) (Any “forward-looking” […]
Oscar Wilde once wrote, “When the gods wants to punish you, they answer your prayers.” Risk assets like high-yield bonds have enjoyed a Fed back-stop. Issuers pounced on record low coupons, and investors suffered through low returns… ▶︎ Read July 25 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, The Conference Board, […]
June’s CPI report showed inflation running at 9.1%, dashing hopes that consumer prices had peaked. Data came from across the economy, challenging the Fed’s rate hike pace. Will 75 bps be enough, or will the Fed kick it up to 1%? Equity markets seem to be buying the notion that longer-term inflation is still headed […]
In recent months, thanks to market volatility caused by higher interest rates, toppy inflation, and the perceived higher probability of a recession, large cap loan prices have traded down sharply. S&P/LCD’s leveraged loan index has dropped from 98.5 in February to 92 last week… ▶︎ Read July 11 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the […]
Broadly syndicated loans are liquid, one investor told us, so they high volatility that exaggerates credit deterioration. The middle market, he said, is illiquid, so has low volatility which can mask credit deterioration… ▶︎ Read July 4 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Lincoln International, S&P/LCD) (Any “forward-looking” information may include, […]