Deal Flow and Bandwidth Issues
Before Covid the persistent view of private credit was too much capital chasing too few deals. Transaction inflation was resulting in tight spreads, high leverage and weak terms.
When Covid hit this balance shifted dramatically in favor of the investor. Deal supply dried up, lenders retreated, and terms strengthed. But within weeks central bank liquidity ended that run.
Today the private credit pipeline is at record levels, fueled by a combination of near-zero risk free rates, low relative value for riskier assets, and volatility from more correlated strategies such as public equities…
▶︎ Read Sept 20 2021 newsletter: here
▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by The Daily Shot, Bloomberg, IHS Markit, Genscape)
(Any “forward-looking” information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.)
Latest news
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The 50 largest BDCs, on the basis of total debt investments as of the second quarter of 2026, accounted for 75% of the total aggregate reported value of nonaccrual debt at cost and fair value.
US private debt AUM ($B) by channel
In 2025 and the early part of 2026, the retail channel added AUM to the asset class at a much faster rate than institutional investors in both regions, with growth rates of 43.7% globally, 41.4% in the US, and 73. 1% in Europe through the beginning of 2026 compared with year-end 2024 figures.
