Many of us who lived through the financial crisis of 2008-2009 had flashbacks to that era. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank also raised concerns about the underlying health of bank balance sheets, particularly for the smaller firms.

We were reminded of how customer confidence is everything for depository institutions. Banks exist because depositors have faith their money is safe. Financial assumptions are made that only a fraction of them will want to withdraw cash at any one time. When that changes no bank, including JP Morgan Chase, can withstand everyone lining up at the teller window.

Some argue about moral hazard and the Fed rescuing mismanaged companies. But the drop regional bank stock prices took even with the full support of the Fed pointed to the potential damage the financial system would have suffered had there been anything short of a backstop...

“We’ve always said the one thing that could derail the Fed’s tightening would be a financial crisis.” – Diane Swonk, chief economist, KPMG.

Featuring Charts

Chart of the Week: Curves Ahead

March 15, 2023

Last week’s bank failures steepened the Treasury curve to levels not seen since 9/11.

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Chart of the Week: Growing, Not Slowing

March 8, 2023

Companies are reporting better revenues and cash flows at different speeds.

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Chart of the Week: Rising Sun

March 1, 2023

Japan’s quarterly GDP has bounced around since Covid, narrowly avoiding recession.

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Chart of the Week: Shooting Close to Par

February 22, 2023

Leveraged loan prices during secondary trading are steadily improving.

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Chart of the Week: Interest Waits

February 15, 2023

Markets are now beginning to believe the Fed’s message in higher for longer.

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Chart of the Week: Healing Time

February 7, 2023

Secondary BSL bids are edging up in concert with optimism in public equities.

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The Pulse of Private Equity – 3/13/2023

Middle-market above pre-Covid levels Download PitchBook’s Report here. Middle-market activity came in at $443.8 billion in 2023, according to PitchBook’s just-released US PE Middle Market Report. That represents a 26% decline from 2021 levels, while deal flow declined by a smaller 21% to 3,314…. Login to Read More...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 3/13/2023

SVB was a major player in US middle market technology lending Silicon Valley Bank, the fifth largest lender to US middle market technology issuers, collapsed last week. According to Refinitiv LPC data, between 2020 and 2022, SVB agented 35 US middle market technology loans, totaling a combined US$4.8bn in deal volume…. Login to Read More...

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Private Debt Intelligence – 3/13/2023

Rising investor interest in special situations and distressed debt An increasing proportion of investors surveyed by Preqin say special situations and distressed present the best opportunities in private debt. According to Preqin’s latest Investor Outlook survey,… Login to Read More...

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PDI Picks – 3/13/2023

Reflections on distress Looking back on capital accumulation in recent years, investor anticipation of distressed debt opportunities grew – sometimes without reason. With distress a major talking point again, here are a few observations from a glance at our fundraising data: Waiting for the wave: Much of the recent history of distressed debt fundraising has…

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DL Deals: News & Analysis – 3/6/2023

Jumbo outstandings climb to $118B with Cotiviti’s new record deal Cotiviti’s $5.5 billion credit raises outstanding jumbo loan volume to $118 billion, as tracked by KBRA DLD. That figure includes incremental debt for existing jumbo issuers, defined as those with private loans of $1 billion or greater. The number of known companies with outstanding jumbo…

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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.

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