Deal, No Deal (Second of a Series)

Last week we took on the question of deal flow. How does the backdrop of M&A activity relate to the volume of reported sponsored debt financings?

This week, we took to the road in search of answers. At the SuperReturn Private Credit conference in Chicago, we chaired the first day of panels, so had a front row seat. There were definitely signs that investors were on the alert for market weaknesses.

Our journalist friends there also spoke of worries in the overall economy of headwinds across a variety of sectors and disciplines. A Reuters dispatch was typical...

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Quote of the Week

“It’s reaching a crescendo in all sorts of places.” – Kit Juckes, macro strategist, Société Générale.

Featuring Charts

Chart of the Week: Off the Peak

October 23, 2019

Valuations have trended up over the past decade, but the number of M&A transactions has slowed.

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Chart of the Week: Lost Articles

October 16, 2019

After a strong fourth quarter last year, quarterly US M&A volume has slowed.

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Chart of the Week: No Climate Change

October 9, 2019

Despite lower rates and higher spreads, CLO formation is on track for a good year.

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Chart of the Week: High and Tight

October 2, 2019

SOFR has hovered around LIBOR, but spiked when repo rates jumped last month.

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Chart of the Week: Correlation Aberration

September 24, 2019

The historic relationship between Libor and midcap loan spreads has been inconsistent.

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Chart of the Week: The Upside of Data

September 17, 2019

Since July’s Fed’s rate cut, non-disappointing economic data has boosted Treasury yields.

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Features

PDI Picks – 10/21/2019

Multi-regional funds hold their own in chase for capital In 2019, so far, capital pools investing in more than one global region have raised more than in 2018. Multi-regional funds – those investing across more than one geographic area – have made a comeback this year, or at least risen back in line to prior

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Private Debt Intelligence – 10/21/2019

Private Debt Performance Slows as AUM Grows Returns for the private debt asset class as a whole have slowed over the past year, with distressed debt and direct lending funds contributing most to this slump. Over the one-, three- and five-year horizons, mezzanine funds have performed the strongest of the debt strategies, posting an annualized

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 10/14/2019

Recent investor challenged single-B deals have yet to gain traction since breaking in the US secondary market As bifurcation among credits continues, a number of recently launched deals for single-B names received significant investor pushback during syndication. Not surprisingly perhaps, none of these loans have been bid above their break price in the secondary market.

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The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/14/2019

Public and private Download PitchBook’s Report here. Recent GP stake deals are giving us a growing sample size of private PE firm valuations. We already had a small set for publicly traded PE firms, and we’ve heard ad nauseum that the public markets don’t fully understand how to value firms like Blackstone or Apollo. Much of

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PDI Picks – 10/14/2019

Another sign that the big are only getting bigger The baseline for being in the top-10 fundraises of the year increased from 2018 to 2019, signaling the growing dominance of a few firms. The overall capital collected by the top-10 fund closes this year has eclipsed the total raised by last year’s 10 largest fundraises,

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Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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State of the Capital Markets – Third Quarter 2019 Review and Fourth Quarter 2019 Outlook

October 17, 2019

Review of Current Market Conditions/ Analysis of Capital Markets Metrics/ Review of Credit Quality/ Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2019

Special Report: Covenantive Easing

September 5, 2019

In May 2019 The Lead Left published a series of articles on covenant trends. This report consolidates those articles.

Special Report: Why Valuations Matter

June 13, 2019

Beginning in April 2019 The Lead Left published a series of articles on valuations. This report consolidates those articles.