What’s so special about the middle market? In a world where every conversation seems to revolve around AI, mega-software M&A, and data center infrastructure, it is easy to overlook the arena that creates 30% of private sector employment and 33% of revenue growth. But as investors grapple with AI transition risks, elevated leverage, and weaker structures in large cap portfolios, the core middle market is getting second and third looks.
Pest control companies, veterinary clinics, and HVAC services aren’t featured on many prime-time business TV programs or conference agendas. But “old economy” sectors are commanding more attention from private equity buyers and their direct lending partners who specialize in core middle companies...
Quote of the Week
"When we have to debate who is going to win and who is going to lose, we want to be conservative.” - Joe McCurdy, Guggenheim Investments (WSJ).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: More Than Meets the Eye
The sectors you pick determine everything that follows. Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index
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Chart of the Week: Closer Than You Think
Turns out, the marks agree more often than not. Source: KBRA
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Chart of the Week: The Clear Choice
Transparency and track records matter most to private credit investors. Source: Coalition Greenwich, Private Credit Market Structure Survey
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Chart of the Week: Success, Not Overnight
Private credit’s growth story, over a decade old, is still evolving. Source: Preqin.
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Chart of the Week: Open for Business
When public credit markets close, private credit absorbs the shock. Source: FT, Hinze, Rintamaki, Mondini, Steffen.
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Chart of the Week: Setting Expectations
Despite the headlines, direct lending makes up a much smaller share of household and business debt than mortgages did at the height of the GFC. Source: Apollo
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Features
PDI Picks – 6/22/2026
Senior debt shows strong deployment The strategy’s popularity with investors peaked in 2024, as did the amount of capital being deployed. In 2024, amid a volatile economic and political environment, investors demonstrated a flight to safety by flocking to senior debt strategies. It was a year that saw senior debt’s share of all global private…
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 6/15/2026
US Leveraged Loan Prices Rise Ahead of Fed Meeting Following a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting in which all 12 members unanimously voted to hold rates steady in the face of persistent inflation, expectations of another rate cut this year have all but evaporated. Kevin Warsh, in his first meeting as Fed Chair, committed…
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 6/15/2026
The Number of Issuers With Nonaccruals Maturing Through 2028 Increased by 4% in Q1’26 Request access to the full report HERE or email kim.giancaspro@octus.com… Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 6/15/2026
U.S. Private credit default rate remains at record high 6.0% in May 2026 Click here to learn more. Fitch Ratings recorded a U.S. Private Credit Default Rate (PCDR) of 6.0% for the TTM ending May 2026, unchanged from April 2026…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
The Pulse of Private Equity – 6/15/2026
US PE middle-market deal activity by quarter Download PitchBook’s Report here. The middle market got off to its strongest start since 2021, even as its share of PE deal value dropped to the lowest level on record…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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