Those who talk about risks in private credit should also keep in mind that investors always look at relative risk. For example, Moody’s analysts observe that without a sustained downturn since the GFC, “private credit has not been truly tested, only quizzed.”
Fair enough. But how did public credit fare over that period? As the analysts also remarked, “Covid defaults could have been materially worse without private credit.” And when the Fed started cranking up interest rates in 2022, the leveraged loan market went off-line for two years! Direct lenders again came to the rescue. Failing quizzes is still failing.
As one top manager put it, when a bond-issue hits the market and trades at 40, why does no one write about the risks of high-yield? In a liquid market, those risks are considered “part of the deal.” Your 60 bps loss doesn’t crystallize unless you sell...
“Investment banking is likely to decline year-over-year given continued uncertainty around policy.” – Mike Mayo, head of US large-cap bank research, Wells Fargo.
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Midcaps Motor On
Through Covid and rate hikes, middle market loan issuance has tracked up. Source: LevFin Insights, a Fitch Solutions company
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Chart of the Week: Mission Unstoppable
Private credit AUM expected to continue steady growth, driven by direct lending. Source: Fitch Ratings, Preqin
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Chart of the Week: Rising Sun
Japan’s long-dated bond yields have moved up sharply so far in 2025. Source: The Daily Shot
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Chart of the Week: Premium Yields
Spreads for middle market CLOs are distributed higher than their BSL counterparts. Source: S&P Global Ratings
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Chart of the Week: Collateralized Loan Observations
Since the Fed began its rate hike regime in March 2022, MM CLO activity has grown. Source: PitchBook
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Chart of the Week: Poised for a Rebound?
Since the early 1800’s, tariff’s share of US government revenues has shrunk dramatically. Source: The Cato Institute
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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 6/16/2025
Leveraged Loan Launches Keep Pace as Global Tensions Mount Click here to access Bloomberg’s US Leveraged Finance Chartbook Through June 17th, 59 deals for $47.8b have launched into the US leveraged loan market this month for a 53% improvement from the full month of May figure. Weekly launches exceeded $20bn during the week ending June…
Middle Market & Private Credit – 6/16/2025
Private Credit’s Growing Complexity Untested Through Market Cycles Click here to download report. How Does the Change in Rate Outlook Affect Middle-Market Borrowers? Despite concerning growth in the number of issuers with coverage at or below 1x, the median issuer’s metrics have remained relatively stable. Approximately 48% of all issuers are estimated to have 2024E…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 6/16/2025
Share of buyout inventory by industry (top 15) Download PitchBook’s Report here. Deals involving GPs as an acquiree or investment target saw record activity in 2024, with 141 deals worth an aggregate deal value of $47.9 billion…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 6/16/2025
Bank loans, high-yield bonds provide boost to levfin origination in May US leveraged finance issuance reached nearly US$127bn in May, up more than 60% from April’s US$78bn pipeline…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 6/16/2025
Families turn to private credit The asset class is moving beyond its traditional institutional investor base. Where insurance firms, pension schemes and other institutional investors have ventured en masse, family offices are increasingly dabbling in what, for many of them, is a new area. Their average allocation to private debt doubled from 2 percent to…
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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