A friend of long-standing and keen observer of capital markets for almost a half-century tells us: “When a rising Dow hits 10,000 increments, investors feel good, even though optimism may not be justified.”

And so we find ourselves mid-second quarter of 2024 with the Dow having reached 40,000, a destination that was Shangri-La not long ago. Like that mythical city somewhere in the Tibetan mountains, no one expected to find it in the real world. Yet barely four years from its Covid-era low of 19,173 here we are.

What does this really mean for investors? As our friend Van Hesser points out in a recent podcast, it’s one of several recent bullish indicators. The US economy is motoring along nicely with expected 2.4% GDP growth this year; a Goldilocks “not-too-warm” keeping things going without igniting inflation. Unemployment is on an unprecedented streak below 4%...

This is a very comforting report. It is consistent with the view of a soft landing.” – Erica Groshen, senior economic advisor, Cornell School of Industrial and Labor Relations, on April’s CPI data.

Featuring Charts

Chart of the Week: No End to Extend

May 21, 2024

Repricings, refinancings, and extensions hit record volume in the BSL market. Source: PitchBook LCD(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Chart of the Week: Reorg, Don’t Liquidate

May 13, 2024

Since the Fed’s rate hike regime began, more bankruptcies are reorganizations. Source: Torsten Slok – Apollo, The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Chart of the Week: Returns Department

May 7, 2024

Global private fund returns of capital has begun to improve since early 2023. Source: MSCI – Private Assets in Focus(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Chart of the Week: Common Ground

April 30, 2024

Higher for longer has compressed leverage for both cov-lite and cov-heavy loans. Source: LSEG LPC(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Chart of the Week: Rate Expectations

April 24, 2024

Loan participants see higher defaults from 1.6% today, but not much higher. Source: PitchBook/LCD(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Chart of the Week: No Ifs, Ands, or Cuts

April 15, 2024

Market observers now think a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting is unlikely.   Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

Read More

Subscribe Now!

Join the leading voice of the middle market. Try us free for 30 days.

Click here to view the Newsletter sample.

What is the Lead Left?

  • One-stop source for deals and data
  • Market trend commentary and analysis
  • Exclusive interviews with thought leaders

Subscribe now

View Article By

Features

Private Debt Intelligence – 5/20/2024

Is an IPO revival in the pipeline? The IPO market ran cold in 2023 as high global interest rates, continued volatility, and poor after-market performance led companies to hold off, and wait for a more stable macroeconomic climate…. Login to Read More...

View Article

Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/20/2024

U.S. Business Development Companies – Peer Review 2024 Download FitchRating’s Report here. The chart above shows trends in reported yields on business development companies’ (BDCs) income-producing investments…. Login to Read More...

View Article

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 5/20/2024

New institutional loan volume remains limited in May Refinancings continue to dominate the US institutional loan calendar in 2Q24 as issuers including Golden Entertainment, 84 Lumber, Filtration Group, USI, PCI Pharma, Vertiv and Standard Building Solutions announced that they are readying repricings…. Login to Read More...

View Article

PDI Picks – 5/20/2024

The challenges of technology Private debt firms may need to make cutting-edge processes a higher priority. When talking about what makes their business tick, private markets managers are usually keen to emphasise their focus on building relationships, on skilled teams of staff and expertise in chosen verticals. While these are no doubt crucial to building…

View Article

Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/13/2024

Fitch’s Privately Monitored Middle Market Portfolio Overview, 1Q24 Download FitchRating’s Report here. In the charts above, Fitch presents aggregate data for MM companies, defined as in the area of $500 million of debt or $100 million of EBITDA or below, that it privately rates for asset managers…. Login to Read More...

View Article

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

provided by

spp capital partners logo

 

Special Report: The Great Unwind

September 28, 2022

Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.

2022 Capital Market Outlook Report

February 3, 2022

Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Login to Read More...

Special Report: Supply Chain Blues

January 6, 2022

Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.