Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively.
The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly in liquid markets where traders can pivot on a dime. Headline risk increases the whipsaw effect of rapidly changing prices in a confused environment. “As good as our stats are, they just weren't made for these kinds of very large moves in policy that cause a knee-jerk reaction,” KPMG’s chief economist, Diane Swonk, reports. “It makes it even harder to read the tea leaves.”
Private capital, with fewer facets exposed to macro dynamics, has been a boon to institutional and wealth investors for price and valuation stability. But visibility on what exactly moves the asset class is less public and...
“Despite numerous headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient.” – Chad Moutray, chief economist, National Restaurant Association (WSJ).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Slowing the Slowdown
Notwithstanding tariffs, economists now view the chances of a recession fading. Source: WSJ Surveys of Economists
Read More
Chart of the Week: Wealth Effects
The share of wealth assets dedicated to private credit is on the rise. Source: FT, Oliver Wyman
Read More
Chart of the Week: Secondary Effects
Since Liberation Day, leveraged loan trading prices have slowly moved higher. Source: Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index
Read More
Chart of the Week: The Comeback Kid
Since the 2021 peak, global M&A activity has been on the rebound. Source: LSEG
Read More
Chart of the Week: Midcaps Motor On
Through Covid and rate hikes, middle market loan issuance has tracked up. Source: LevFin Insights, a Fitch Solutions company
Read More
Chart of the Week: Mission Unstoppable
Private credit AUM expected to continue steady growth, driven by direct lending. Source: Fitch Ratings, Preqin
Read More
Subscribe Now!
Join the leading voice of the middle market. Try us free for 30 days.
Click here to view the Newsletter sample.
What is the Lead Left?
- One-stop source for deals and data
- Market trend commentary and analysis
- Exclusive interviews with thought leaders
View Article By
Features
The Pulse of Private Equity – 7/14/2025
US PE fundraising activity Download PitchBook’s Report here. PE fundraising has landed at a lower level than in 2024, which was already a worse year for fundraising than the three years prior, where the industry saw record-setting fundraising…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 7/7/2025
US Leveraged Loan Issuance Tops $65bn in June June’s 75 deals for $66b was up $34.4b, or 109%, from the previous month’s $31.6b, but was down $83.6b or 56% from the same month a year ago. It brought the Q2 total to $107.4b across 128 deals for a 68% decline from the first quarter total…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 7/7/2025
PE capital raised ($B) by age bucket (2010-2025) Download PitchBook’s Report here. Looking at the funds that face the most imminent fund terms, 11.8% of active funds are 10 to 11 years old, and 13.7% of active funds are 8 to 9 years old…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 7/7/2025
As overall issuance slips in 2Q25, strategic M&A remains a bright spot for LevFin market Leveraged finance issuance topped US$343bn in 2Q25, down approximately 30% from 1Q25 and off nearly 40% versus 2Q24…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 7/7/2025
2025 sees fundraising extremes Our data shows the brakes have been slammed by investors after a fast start to the year for those raising fresh capital. ‘Volatile’ is the word frequently being used to describe the economic and political backdrop to investing today. For private debt managers, that same volatility is being seen on the…
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
provided by
Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
Our Content Partners
