Deal, No Deal (First of a Series)

“I left it right on the piano bench. Now I can’t find it!” Our daughter’s flute instruction book had somehow vanished or walked off on its own. Her father is notified of this catastrophe three minutes before she is to be dropped off for her 7:30 a.m. lesson.

Well, when was the last time you saw it? we demanded, dashing around madly, opening every conceivable drawer and closet in the house. “July,” she answered.

Alas, time stands still for no lost thing, woodwind or otherwise. Take loan syndications deal flow. According to Refinitiv, both large cap and middle market volume was off, 28% and 14%, respectively, for the quarter just ended...

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Quote of the Week

“There’s a broad sense of optimism.” – Timothy High, interest rate strategist, BNP Paribas.

Featuring Charts

Chart of the Week: Lost Articles

October 16, 2019

After a strong fourth quarter last year, quarterly US M&A volume has slowed.

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Chart of the Week: No Climate Change

October 9, 2019

Despite lower rates and higher spreads, CLO formation is on track for a good year.

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Chart of the Week: High and Tight

October 2, 2019

SOFR has hovered around LIBOR, but spiked when repo rates jumped last month.

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Chart of the Week: Correlation Aberration

September 24, 2019

The historic relationship between Libor and midcap loan spreads has been inconsistent.

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Chart of the Week: The Upside of Data

September 17, 2019

Since July’s Fed’s rate cut, non-disappointing economic data has boosted Treasury yields.

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Chart of the Week: Tale of Two Classes

September 11, 2019

As the Fed reversed course on interest rates last year, cash fled loan funds and piled into high-yield bond accounts.

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 10/14/2019

Recent investor challenged single-B deals have yet to gain traction since breaking in the US secondary market As bifurcation among credits continues, a number of recently launched deals for single-B names received significant investor pushback during syndication. Not surprisingly perhaps, none of these loans have been bid above their break price in the secondary market.

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The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/14/2019

Public and private Download PitchBook’s Report here. Recent GP stake deals are giving us a growing sample size of private PE firm valuations. We already had a small set for publicly traded PE firms, and we’ve heard ad nauseum that the public markets don’t fully understand how to value firms like Blackstone or Apollo. Much of

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PDI Picks – 10/14/2019

Another sign that the big are only getting bigger The baseline for being in the top-10 fundraises of the year increased from 2018 to 2019, signaling the growing dominance of a few firms. The overall capital collected by the top-10 fund closes this year has eclipsed the total raised by last year’s 10 largest fundraises,

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Private Debt Intelligence – 10/14/2019

Private Debt Funds in Market Q3 2019 The fundraising market for private debt remains crowded at the start of Q4, with 417 private debt funds seeking an aggregate $177bn in capital. Although slightly down from the start of Q3, both figures remain very high compared with historical total. But these figures could lead to a

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The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/7/2019

Add-ons keep surging Download PitchBook’s Report here. Add-ons now account for 68% of all US PE buyouts. If that pace holds, 2019 will notch another high-mark for the add-on/LBO ratio, which has been trending up for the past decade. That’s according to PitchBook’s 3Q Breakdown Report, just released this week. Two crosswinds have helped boost that

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Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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State of the Capital Markets – Third Quarter 2019 Review and Fourth Quarter 2019 Outlook

October 17, 2019

Review of Current Market Conditions/ Analysis of Capital Markets Metrics/ Review of Credit Quality/ Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2019

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In May 2019 The Lead Left published a series of articles on covenant trends. This report consolidates those articles.

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Beginning in April 2019 The Lead Left published a series of articles on valuations. This report consolidates those articles.