Investors are challenged today with so much data and distraction coming at them from every angle. This makes it tough to see the big picture, which looks pretty good.
After a dramatic 50 bp chop to the Fed funds rate barely two weeks ago, the mood has swung around once again. Now it’s more like,“What’s the rush?” Indeed, several panelists at the Greenwich Economic Forum last week suggested rates were at a good level, keeping inflation at bay and allowing the economy’s momentum to continue.
Our experience has been that most predictions of risks have the timing exactly wrong: buy when you should be selling, sell when you should be buying. Those who say credit is risky, for example, because interest rates are high, will miss the best of both worlds. Debt costs will improve for borrowers, but all-in yields for investors will remain well above historic levels...
“Investors expect modestly lower credit spreads, no change, and some widening.” – Jeremy Barnum, chief financial officer, JP Morgan Chase, on its 3Q performance.
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: All of the Above
Investors expect modestly lower credit spreads, no change, or some widening. Source: The Daily Shot, PitchBook/LCD(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: On A Roll
September’s surprisingly strong jobs report further signals a soft landing. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: O Canada
Canadian GDP forecasts have been increasingly bullish since January. Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Ahead of the Curve
The size of the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years – 50 bps – surprised analysts. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Asking for Directions
Since early July public equities have seesawed between recession worries and confidence. Source: FactSet(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Arrivederci, Roma
Consumers in Italy reported a drop in confidence last month. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Related posts: Chart of the Week CHART OF THE WEEK CHART OF THE WEEK CHART OF THE WEEK
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Private Debt Intelligence – 10/7/2024
Private debt fundraising in Europe falls despite rapid pace of deployment Read more in Preqin’s Insights+ Report: Alternatives in Europe 2024 After two record fundraising years in 2022 (€54.1bn) and 2023 (€71.0bn) for private debt, there has been a sharp decline in capital raised by Europe-based managers. In the first half of 2024, just €13.9bn…
Middle Market & Private Credit – 10/7/2024
Cushions in Collateral Quality Tests Stay Mostly Positive Click here to download report. All Fitch-rated MM CLOs include a Fitch Test Matrix as part of a CLO’s Collateral Quality Tests (CQTs) in MM CLOs, including Fitch weighted average recovery rate (WARR), Fitch weighted average rating factor (WARF), weighted average spread (WAS) and weighted average life…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/7/2024
Global PE deal activity Download PitchBook’s Report here. Global PE deal activity maintained a healthier tally in aggregate value even as counts dipped slightly from Q2 tallies, according to the most recent figures from PitchBook in its Global PE First Look…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 10/7/2024
Record setting 1-3Q24 US sponsored loan volume tells mixed story US sponsor tapped lenders for nearly US$186bn in loan financing in 3Q24, pushing 1-3Q24 issuance levels to a record setting high of US$668bn. There were caveats to the strong results however…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 10/7/2024
Hints of a fundraising revival Download PDI’s Report: Fundraising sees Q3 revival After a period of much-publicised struggles, fund managers seeking fresh capital have been given a shot in the arm by the latest figures. After a tough first quarter, private debt fundraising has picked up the pace through the rest of 2024 to end…
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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