A conversation this week between business TV anchors included the following half-joking observation: “Credit managers are saying, ‘Our 2026 outlook is baked. We’re now focusing on 2027.’”
While we admire the brio behind this assertion, our confidence with market predictions – including our own – is not great. What many expected to happen this year, even as late as April’s Liberation Day is a good example. Instead of a recession, crashing rates and wild inflation, the exact opposite occurred. Hence the bullishness for next year...
“Monetary policy has to walk a fine line. Each rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy flips from restraining activity a bit to the place where it starts to provide a boost.” – Anna Paulson, president, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Bloomberg).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Prime Cut
A low probability just weeks ago, chances for a 25 bp cut now seem likely. Source: The Daily Shot
Read More
Chart of the Week: Lower for Longer
Direct lending defaults lead credit categories in low defaults, though headed higher. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research
Read More
Chart of the Week: Higher for Longer
Larger LBO financings in direct lending are sporting increasingly higher leverage. Source: KBRA DLD Research, 3-month rolling averages
Read More
Chart of the Week: Gone Fishing
On November 5th, the 2025 government shutdown became the longest in US history. Source: The Daily Shot
Read More
Chart of the Week: Equity and the Emirates
UAE’s shift from oil-centric to a broader industrial economy will propel PE investments. Source: imarc
Read More
Chart of the Week: Auto Correct
The value of First Brand loans was close to par – until it wasn’t. Source: Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ, iCapital Investment Strategy
Read More
Subscribe Now!
Join the leading voice of the middle market. Try us free for 30 days.
Click here to view the Newsletter sample.
What is the Lead Left?
- One-stop source for deals and data
- Market trend commentary and analysis
- Exclusive interviews with thought leaders
View Article By
Features
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 12/1/2025
US Leveraged Loan Issuance Tapers Off in November November’s $53.6b of US institutional leveraged loan issuance was down $9.7b, or 15.3%, from the previous month’s $63.3b, marking a decline of 55% from the same month a year ago and the slowest month of issuance since May’s $33b…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 12/1/2025
The record setting continues as BDC AUM reaches US$534bn Investors continue to allocate more capital to BDCs and in turn the upward growth trajectory shows no sign of slowing, with BDC assets under management (AUM) climbing to a record US$534bn in 3Q25…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 12/1/2025
US Life Insurer Investment Risk Rising from Private Letter Ratings Click here to learn more. Join Fitch for the upcoming Outlook panel: 2026 Leveraged Finance Credit Outlook Webinar The rapid growth of private letter ratings (PLRs) raises risks for U.S. life insurers as it coincides with the industry’s move toward more complex, opaque investments untested…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 12/1/2025
Private capital dry powder ($B) Download PitchBook’s Report here. Enough capital was raised to more than compensate for the capital calls issued thus far in 2025 to cause dry powder to grow again from the year-end 2024 figure…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 12/1/2025
The rise of secondaries Our Perspectives 2026 survey confirms that secondaries are growing in investor popularity. Secondaries have quickly moved from the periphery of private credit to the mainstream. Our Perspectives 2026 survey reveals the evidence of this sudden change…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
provided by
Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
Our Content Partners
