Investors are challenged today with so much data and distraction coming at them from every angle. This makes it tough to see the big picture, which looks pretty good.
After a dramatic 50 bp chop to the Fed funds rate barely two weeks ago, the mood has swung around once again. Now it’s more like,“What’s the rush?” Indeed, several panelists at the Greenwich Economic Forum last week suggested rates were at a good level, keeping inflation at bay and allowing the economy’s momentum to continue.
Our experience has been that most predictions of risks have the timing exactly wrong: buy when you should be selling, sell when you should be buying. Those who say credit is risky, for example, because interest rates are high, will miss the best of both worlds. Debt costs will improve for borrowers, but all-in yields for investors will remain well above historic levels...
“These results are consistent with a soft landing.” – Jeremy Barnum, chief financial officer, JP Morgan Chase, on its 3Q performance.
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: All of the Above
Investors expect modestly lower credit spreads, no change, and some widening. Source: The Daily Shot, PitchBook/LCD(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: On A Roll
September’s surprisingly strong jobs report further signals a soft landing. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: O Canada
Canadian GDP forecasts have been increasingly bullish since January. Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Ahead of the Curve
The size of the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years – 50 bps – surprised analysts. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Asking for Directions
Since early July public equities have seesawed between recession worries and confidence. Source: FactSet(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
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Chart of the Week: Arrivederci, Roma
Consumers in Italy reported a drop in confidence last month. Source: The Daily Shot(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Related posts: Chart of the Week CHART OF THE WEEK CHART OF THE WEEK CHART OF THE WEEK
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Middle Market & Private Credit – 10/14/2024
Net Asset Downgrades Ease in September for US BSL CLOs Click here to download report. Fitch Ratings-rated U.S. CLOs backed by broadly syndicated loans (BSL) experienced just two net downgrades in the underlying assets – the fewest in the latest trailing twelve-month (TTM) period. The TTM period averaged about 12 net downgrades per month, but…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/14/2024
PE take-private deal activity Download PitchBook’s Report here. In Q3 2024, take-private deal activity plummeted from the two-year high recorded in Q2. Deal count declined from 31 to 18, and deal value plunged from $71.6 billion to $43.9 billion…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 10/14/2024
US LBO Capital Structures: In world of high valuations, increased senior leverage and equity prevail in 3Q24 While pro forma leverage and equity contributions for US large cap LBO transactions have remained elevated, and continue to move higher and parallel with valuations despite higher rates, capital structures have evolved accordingly…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a
PDI Picks – 10/14/2024
Munich’s key talking points Read PDI’s Report: Golden age talk tempered by concern over recent vintages Stress, pricing pressure and resilience were among the characteristics of private debt referred to in the German city. This week, Private Debt Investor was hosting its annual Germany Forum in Munich. You can read here about our coverage of…
Private Debt Intelligence – 10/7/2024
Private debt fundraising in Europe falls despite rapid pace of deployment Read more in Preqin’s Insights+ Report: Alternatives in Europe 2024 After two record fundraising years in 2022 (€54.1bn) and 2023 (€71.0bn) for private debt, there has been a sharp decline in capital raised by Europe-based managers. In the first half of 2024, just €13.9bn…
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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