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Join Fitch for the upcoming Outlook panel: Credit Outlook 2025 Private Credit
Rating downgrades and default rates for Fitch’s North America Privately Monitored Ratings (PMR) portfolio could stabilize in 2025. Modest interest rate relief and steady earnings growth will support credit profiles. Continued capital market strength could lead to repricing or exit opportunities for sponsors. Risks include interest rates that remain high relative to history, and a potential labor shortage that would affect this service-heavy portfolio.
The same macro factors are likely to drive a stabilization and gradual decline in default rates within the private credit segment. We expect default rates to remain elevated in the beginning of 2025 but gradually decline as the year progresses. The default rate in Fitch’s PMR portfolio ended 3Q24 at 7%, up from around 3% at the start of the year.
Latest news
Q2'26 BDC analysis shows additional 184 bps of nonaccruals at cost
In a universe of 173 business development companies, or BDCs, Octus identified a total of $9.5 billion of debt (at cost) in nonaccrual status reported in the second quarter of 2026, a slight decline of 5% from $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Reading the Board
The story changes depending on which numbers you’re counting.
Private Credit Defaults 101: Different Numbers, Different Stories
In Season 2 of Billions, Bobby Axelrod takes his lawyer Orrin Bach to an empty Yonkers racetrack in the dead of night.