Fitch’s Privately Monitored Middle Market Portfolio Overview − 3Q24 (Part 2)
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In the charts above, Fitch presents aggregate data for Middle Market companies that it privately rates on a monitored basis for asset managers, defined as:
- in the area of $500 million of debt; or
- $100 million of EBITDA or below.
Fitch forecasts 2024 Interest Coverage slightly up to 1.7x from 1.6x in 2023. Lower base rates will support coverage. However, Fitch does not expect much further benefit from lower spreads the remainder of the year.
Fitch forecasts 2024 revenue growth at 4.7%, slightly down from the last quarter’s projection of 4.9%. Technology and Diversified Manufacturing lead other sectors with estimated revenue growths of 8.3% and 8.0%, respectively, for 2024. In a recent Fitch Wire, Fitch noted that robust artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is positive for IT Hardware and semiconductor manufacturer’s credit profiles, but cautions that sustained expenditures near current levels may lead to excess capacity in the medium term.
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Top 50 BDCs Accounted for 75% of Nonaccrual Loan Cost in Q2’26
The 50 largest BDCs, on the basis of total debt investments as of the second quarter of 2026, accounted for 75% of the total aggregate reported value of nonaccrual debt at cost and fair value.
US private debt AUM ($B) by channel
In 2025 and the early part of 2026, the retail channel added AUM to the asset class at a much faster rate than institutional investors in both regions, with growth rates of 43.7% globally, 41.4% in the US, and 73. 1% in Europe through the beginning of 2026 compared with year-end 2024 figures.
