Our friends at William Blair ended their 3Q survey [link] with a summary of issues most expected to impact leveraged loans through year-end. Here’s a sampling:
Supply/demand equilibrium. Which comes first, supply or demand? Retail cash inflows and CLO capacity largely drive liquid loan demand. Once issuers see there’s investor appetite, they hit the market with whatever bankers deem to be clearing terms. With private credit, it’s all about manager dry powder. There’s plenty of that.
But the rush to close by December 31st is swamping investment teams’ band-width. Managers can pick and choose so terms are leaning more investor-friendly.
Tax effect. Hard to recall a year-end when taxpayers weren’t worried about higher rates. Nevertheless selling owners of companies expect the worst and are hastening to put as much cash in their pockets today.