Last week we looked at sponsored middle market loan volume to come up with an idea of how large the midcap universe is. Before run-offs and refinancings, we came up with a figure of $410 billion.

Now we turn our attention to the sponsored middle market refinancing cliff. As our Chart of the Week highlights, about $238 billion in loans mature over the next six years, peaking at a quarterly rate of $14 billion during 2Q 2021.

According to Fran Beyers at Thomson Reuters LPC, this represents syndicated loan maturities. “We don’t track maturities of the private club transactions,” she told us. “Since there’s about the same level of issuance between clubs and syndicates, I would assume the maturities are similar. So double the $238 billion and you’re at $476 billion of total middle market maturities.

“It’s important to note the refinancing cliff is somewhat overstated,” Fran continued. “That’s because we can’t track amortization or excess cash flow recaptures. Also if a direct lender refinances a deal it won’t show up unless they submit it for league tables.”

To get a sense of how much the upcoming maturities exceeds total outstandings,