Commentary

Risk On/Risk On (Part Two)

What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the yeaWhat is coming through clearly in our conversations with credit professionals is that we are in a risk-on world. Somewhat delayed from earlier in the year, thanks to tariffs, but the strength and direction is unmistakable. This…

Risk On/Risk On (Part One)

What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the year? Those were the among the questions posed to your correspondent and three other panelists at Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How Private Credit and Banks Traversed the Tariff Storm to a Brighter Second Half.” We’ve discussed here…

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Conclusion)

Our recent survey of 164 private equity executives revealed improved confidence in both the M&A environment over the next twelve months as well as the exit activity emerging from that. Digging further, we see several interesting dynamics about their financing partners and the current strategies employed to maximize deployment and valuations.  As we’ve noted in…

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part Two)

In response to our Reflections on Wimbledon two weeks ago, a long-time Lead Left reader informed us that the famed tournament is expanding. While we had opined “no one is building new grass courts,” he learned that the All-England Club has purchased an adjacent 100-acre golf course. “Subject to zoning approvals,” he wrote, “plans include…

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part One)

Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively. The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly…

Reflections on Wimbledon

As a long-time observer and amateur practitioner of the game, we enjoy the season when tennis arrives at the hallowed grounds of Wimbledon. It also reminds us how capital markets, like the stately British stadium, evolve beyond decades of tradition into more sophisticated and timely versions. There’s the stark contrast between players, accustomed to hard…

Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (Last of a Series)

Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors.  Nevertheless, April’s “sell America”…

Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (First of a Series)

Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even watching his Mission Impossible and Top Gun acrobatics over the years, we figured riskier sequences involved some kind of green screen technology. Until we saw practice runs for his motorcycle jump on the latest MI…