Commentary

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Conclusion)

Our recent survey of 164 private equity executives revealed improved confidence in both the M&A environment over the next twelve months as well as the exit activity emerging from that. Digging further, we see several interesting dynamics about their financing partners and the current strategies employed to maximize deployment and valuations.  As we’ve noted in…

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part Two)

In response to our Reflections on Wimbledon two weeks ago, a long-time Lead Left reader informed us that the famed tournament is expanding. While we had opined “no one is building new grass courts,” he learned that the All-England Club has purchased an adjacent 100-acre golf course. “Subject to zoning approvals,” he wrote, “plans include…

The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part One)

Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively. The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly…

Reflections on Wimbledon

As a long-time observer and amateur practitioner of the game, we enjoy the season when tennis arrives at the hallowed grounds of Wimbledon. It also reminds us how capital markets, like the stately British stadium, evolve beyond decades of tradition into more sophisticated and timely versions. There’s the stark contrast between players, accustomed to hard…

Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (Last of a Series)

Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors.  Nevertheless, April’s “sell America”…

Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (First of a Series)

Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even watching his Mission Impossible and Top Gun acrobatics over the years, we figured riskier sequences involved some kind of green screen technology. Until we saw practice runs for his motorcycle jump on the latest MI…

Letter from Tokyo (Last of a Series)

“Rice supplies in Japan still low, with prices almost doubled since a year ago.” – Headline, Asia News Network.  Always attuned to market conditions on the ground, we heard from friends in Tokyo last week that, incredibly, grocery stores were out of rice. The impact of hot, wet weather and dealers hoarding product has sent…

Letter from Tokyo (Second of a Series)

Last week we came to Tokyo for meetings with our investors and friends in the region, as well as participating in S&P’s stellar Structured Finance Seminar 2025. Along with almost 200 attendees we heard senior ratings analysts and leading CLO market participants discuss trends and outlooks for global leveraged finance, CLOs and other securitized strategies. …