As we continue our series examining the effects of higher interest rates and a potential recession on private credit, we also now need to throw in the impact of recent bank failures. It’s clear all sorts of economic and market indicators – the Treasury curve, Treasury spreads, stock prices, to name a few – are…
Many of us who lived through the financial crisis of 2008-2009 had flashbacks to that era. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank also raised concerns about the underlying health of bank balance sheets, particularly for the smaller firms. We were reminded of how customer confidence is everything for depository institutions. Banks exist…
Our friends at Lincoln International produce a superb report on private market insights from their valuations and opinions group. Derived from their database of hundreds of borrowers as part of their quarterly analyses for managers’ portfolio valuations, this data provides helpful guidance on a host of issues such as loan prices, purchase price multiples, and…
This past week we visited our clients and friends in Japan. The last time we did, three months before Covid, that nation’s GDP had ended modestly down 0.2%. During 2020 it plunged 4.3%; about twice as sluggish as the US. Japan’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 to 2.1% and slowed to 1.1% last year. Projections…
Our family winter break in Turks and Caicos last week was highlighted by two discoveries. First, neither of our daughters are particularly interested in water activities. And second, their all-inclusive meal mainstays, despite a world of delicacies, were chicken nuggets and cotton candy. We say this, not to disparage young girls’ dietary or athletic choices….
Over the past twelve months, as Fed rate hikes have taken hold, much attention has been paid to the denominator effect. This is the impact on investors’ portfolios as liquid asset prices have fallen, creating larger-than-anticipated allocations in other areas. For many the over-sized shares are coming in alternatives. Institutional investors set limits based on…
Inflection points are often apparent only in hindsight. While it’s premature to call a top to the current rate and inflation cycle, signs are evident that change is underway. Last week’s Fed rate hike of 25 bps, a deceleration from its previous three monthly moves, is a case in point. At 4.50-4.75% we are within…
After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, our panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.” “We’re having daily conversations with clients about how long to wait,” one reported. ”What won’t change…
As it turns out, there’s no better lens through which to examine the effects of the current economic environment than US middle market M&A activity. As we heard last week from five top investment bankers, a wide range of indicators – including volume, valuations, financing and sector rotation – flashed across the market in the…
Any attempt to predict what the future investing climate will be is bound to be an iffy proposition. This point was driven home to us as we reviewed past candidates for Lead Left Quotes of the Week that didn’t make the cut for one reason or another. For instance, back in May 2021 one CIO…