Back in October 2020 we introduced the concept of how supply and demand imbalances in private markets affects credit quality and performance. Too much capital chasing too few deals leads to overly aggressive terms – great for issuers, but for investors not so much.  In the immediate aftermath of Covid, conditions were quite different than…

In this series we’ve reviewed market conditions for issuers as we wrap up 2Q and head into the second half of the year. Let’s conclude by looking at how investors view this environment and what questions and conclusions are arising.   As we’ve highlighted, there are headwinds and tailwinds in deal flow. Demand from managers who…

Our keynote opening remarks at the 3rd Annual Sahar Private Credit Conference last week highlighted themes this special series has been developing. In particular, we delineated the distinction between demand in liquid credit, as driven by CLO capacity, and that of private credit, determined by availability of dry powder from direct lenders.  On the supply…

How challenging has it been to predict the next recession? An inverted Treasury yield curve, a reliable forecaster of the past eight consecutive downturns, has been signaling recession for almost two years. So far, the economy has failed to cooperate. While growth is slowing, and inflation along with it, expectations are broad of a solid…

A friend of long-standing and keen observer of capital markets for almost a half-century tells us: “When a rising Dow hits 10,000 increments, investors feel good, even though optimism may not be justified.” And so we find ourselves mid-second quarter of 2024 with the Dow having reached 40,000, a destination that was Shangri-La not long ago….

We’ve spent the last six weeks outlining best practices top direct lenders employ so portfolios generate the highest returns complemented by the lowest risk. Nevertheless, stuff happens. In fact, we count on stuff happening. You need to be prepared to deal with those eventualities. In a recent conversation, our head of workout, Brent Chase offered…

No one loves physicals. The battery of tests, poking and prodding, with routine check-ups are low on our bucket list. We therefore approached last month’s visit to the cardiologist with trepidation. Things got interesting when he spotted on the MRI what appeared to be a widening of the aorta: “Aneurysm.” A hasty Google search uncovered…

This week we continue our series on best practices of top private credit firms with a look at how underwriting teams partner closely with their internal colleagues to ensure the most favorable execution for their sponsor clients and investors. Clear communications with private equity partners at the deal screening stage is essential. Quick and decisive…

Understanding the connection between business and structural risks is one of the keys to successful credit investing. “Good company, bad balance sheet” is how opportunistic credit managers describe troubled but attractive situations in which to invest. It’s helpful to examine these transactions for clues as to how the borrower got a bad balance sheet to…

Why is portfolio construction such an important concept for analyzing private credit managers? The answer seems obvious, but it’s more than ensuring defaults and loses are minimized. As the asset class has grown to dominate the debt capital markets, questions persist around its durability. How will the asset class perform in a real downturn? Will…