There’s no better lens through which to examine the effects of the current economic environment than US middle market M&A activity. A wide range of indicators – volume, valuations, financing and sector rotation – were flashing in the wake of rate hikes, volatility, and economic headwinds… ▶︎ Read Jan 23 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart […]
The beauty of time off from work is the opportunity to reflect on the big picture. For us at the Lead Left it means moving beyond 2022 rates and recessions to a thoughtful consideration of what comes next… ▶︎ Read Jan 16 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, Bloomberg) (Any […]
The beauty of time off from work is the opportunity to reflect on the big picture. For us at the Lead Left it means moving beyond 2022 rates and recessions to a thoughtful consideration of what comes next… ▶︎ Read Jan 9 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Steven Rattner, US […]
We noted last week the Fed’s battle to slay the inflation dragon without also cratering the entire village. Increasing spreads on top of a five percent-plus benchmark rate could dampen M&A and financings… ▶︎ Read Dec 19 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD)) (Any “forward-looking” information […]
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps at its December meeting, following four consecutive 75 bp increases. The Fed funds rate target now stands at 4.25% – 4.50%. It had begun the year at zero… ▶︎ Read Dec 12 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, Federal Reserve) (Any […]
A Lead Left reader, and leveraged finance veteran, disagreed with our statement last week that private credit terms have never been more investor-friendly. He compared them to more conservative loan structures and legal protections in the 1990’s… ▶︎ Read Dec 5 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Refinitiv LPC) (Any “forward-looking” […]
The clock is ticking on interest rate hikes. Who will win the inflation fight: the Fed with a soft landing, or a recession with a hard one? The answer could either push buyers deeper into private credit, or reinforce indecision… ▶︎ Read Nov 14 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, […]
Last Tuesday the largest winning Powerball ticket ever (10-33-41-47-56) was bought at a gas station in Altadena, CA, just north of Pasadena. The lucky jackpot winner of $2.04 billion can elect a lump sum of $1 billion or be paid in installments over thirty-years… ▶︎ Read Nov 7 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the […]
In recent weeks we’ve talked about how the Fed’s Great Unwind and rate hikes have impacted the economy, capital markets, and private credit. Top economist have helped interpret data on where US and global economies are headed. And we’ve analyzed how private credit terms are impacting both… ▶︎ Read Oct 31 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ […]
We wrap up our unpacking of the rich content delivered by our three top economists in last month’s exclusive webinar by looking at global policies. With the exception of Brazil the Fed is way ahead of other central banks in its quantitative tightening and rate hike program. The ECB is “dithering” and the BOE not […]