The clock is ticking on interest rate hikes. Who will win the inflation fight: the Fed with a soft landing, or a recession with a hard one? The answer could either push buyers deeper into private credit, or reinforce indecision… ▶︎ Read Nov 14 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, […]
Last Tuesday the largest winning Powerball ticket ever (10-33-41-47-56) was bought at a gas station in Altadena, CA, just north of Pasadena. The lucky jackpot winner of $2.04 billion can elect a lump sum of $1 billion or be paid in installments over thirty-years… ▶︎ Read Nov 7 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the […]
In recent weeks we’ve talked about how the Fed’s Great Unwind and rate hikes have impacted the economy, capital markets, and private credit. Top economist have helped interpret data on where US and global economies are headed. And we’ve analyzed how private credit terms are impacting both… ▶︎ Read Oct 31 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ […]
We wrap up our unpacking of the rich content delivered by our three top economists in last month’s exclusive webinar by looking at global policies. With the exception of Brazil the Fed is way ahead of other central banks in its quantitative tightening and rate hike program. The ECB is “dithering” and the BOE not […]
This week we continue unpacking the rich content our three top economists provided at last week’s exclusive webinar. Here are some key takeaways. Nominal GDP remains relatively high in the US, with greater growth reflected in higher corporate revenues and earnings… ▶︎ Read Oct 17 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by […]
One of many challenges of the investing climate is reading the economic signs. Is inflation coming down or going up? Is the labor market strengthening or weakening? Are we in a recession, or just slow growth… ▶︎ Read Oct 10 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Berenberg, Haver Analytics) (Any “forward-looking” […]
The world is changing from one where risk-taking was rewarded, to one where it is punished if not appropriately managed. Can you be rewarded while managing today’s level of greater risk? The Fed’s withdrawal of capital and rate hikes plus liquid credit dislocation has opened a window of opportunity… ▶︎ Read Oct 3 2022 newsletter: […]
Public capital allocation is governed by fast cash, so when money flows out of retail funds, it’s a headwind to deal activity. Private capital has long-term, locked-up funds. But in this period of uncertainty, managers are taking longer looks at risks versus opportunities… ▶︎ Read Sept 26 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: […]
Supply chain issues aren’t limited to bikes and baby formula. As the Fed withdraws liquidity from the banking system and investor cash exits public credit, delivering capital to traditional buyouts and M&A is a challenge… ▶︎ Read Sept 19 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Preqin – North America data) (Any […]
For over a decade, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. That’s because since the Great Recession the Fed has kept interest rates low. Public credit, both loans and bonds, benefited from this support… ▶︎ Read Sept 12 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary […]