Media

Welcome to the Numerator Effect

Over the past twelve months, as Fed rate hikes have taken hold, much attention has been paid to the denominator effect. This is the impact on investors’ portfolios as liquid asset prices have fallen, creating larger-than-anticipated allocations in alternatives…. ▶︎ Read Feb 13 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, Bloomberg, […]

The Everything Rally

After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, a panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.”… ▶︎ Read Feb 6 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary […]

Bankers’ M&A Outlook for 2023

After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, a panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.”… ▶︎ Read Jan 30 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, Jefferies, […]

M&A Trends - Year in Review

There’s no better lens through which to examine the effects of the current economic environment than US middle market M&A activity. A wide range of indicators – volume, valuations, financing and sector rotation – were flashing in the wake of rate hikes, volatility, and economic headwinds… ▶︎ Read Jan 23 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart […]

The 2023 M&A Outlook - Continued

The beauty of time off from work is the opportunity to reflect on the big picture. For us at the Lead Left it means moving beyond 2022 rates and recessions to a thoughtful consideration of what comes next… ▶︎ Read Jan 16 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, Bloomberg) (Any […]

2023 Outlook for M&A

The beauty of time off from work is the opportunity to reflect on the big picture. For us at the Lead Left it means moving beyond 2022 rates and recessions to a thoughtful consideration of what comes next… ▶︎ Read Jan 9 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Steven Rattner, US […]

The Alternative Pipeline

We noted last week the Fed’s battle to slay the inflation dragon without also cratering the entire village. Increasing spreads on top of a five percent-plus benchmark rate could dampen M&A and financings… ▶︎ Read Dec 19 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD)) (Any “forward-looking” information […]

Soft Landing, Hard Choices

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 bps at its December meeting, following four consecutive 75 bp increases. The Fed funds rate target now stands at 4.25% – 4.50%. It had begun the year at zero… ▶︎ Read Dec 12 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, Federal Reserve) (Any […]

Why Private Credit Now? A Summary

A Lead Left reader, and leveraged finance veteran, disagreed with our statement last week that private credit terms have never been more investor-friendly. He compared them to more conservative loan structures and legal protections in the 1990’s… ▶︎ Read Dec 5 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Refinitiv LPC) (Any “forward-looking” […]

Why Private Credit Now, Cont’d

The clock is ticking on interest rate hikes. Who will win the inflation fight: the Fed with a soft landing, or a recession with a hard one? The answer could either push buyers deeper into private credit, or reinforce indecision… ▶︎ Read Nov 14 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, […]