The short-term forecast Download PitchBook’s Report here. PitchBook analysts expect deal flow to drop fairly substantially over the next several quarters. The trajectory is similar to the drop during the 2008 financial crisis but doesn’t reach the depths that it did in 2009. If our forecasts come close to the truth, deal volume will dip to…

April was down, as expected Download PitchBook’s Report here. An early look at April 2020 deal volume shows the significant decline we’ve all been anticipating. Only 158 transactions were completed last month, less than half of the typical monthly volume we were seeing pre-pandemic. As we’ve noted in the past, some of these deals were announced…

The consolidation question Download PitchBook’s Report here. If the current downturn mimics the 2008 financial crisis, private equity may see a few years of industry consolidation before diversifying again. In 2007, on the eve of the GFC, firms with at least $10B in AUM accounted for about 41.1% of the industry’s capital…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready

The bankruptcy question Download PitchBook’s Report here. A looming question over the next several months is how many PE-backed companies will be forced into bankruptcy. The odds suggest an increase in PE-backed bankruptcies as cash flows begin to dry up in the short term. According to PitchBook’s Quantitative Perspectives, GFC-era data offers some clues on what…

Socially distancing from high multiples Download PitchBook’s Report here. The median M&A multiple clocked in at 8.2x in Q1. That’s down from last year’s 9.8x median, according to PitchBook’s just-released North American M&A Report. One quarter does not a year make, but 2020 is probably an exception. The Q1 dip included two normal months, which won’t…

Different problems for real assets With fear permeating the real estate market, real assets are once again coming into focus. An upcoming PitchBook analyst note provides a retrospective on 2008 and potential implications for the current situation. Cash management was difficult for LPs twelve years ago. Real assets funds aged between four and eight years,…

Not a good time to raise your first fund Download PitchBook’s Report here. As expected, Q1 fundraising totals were soft, according to PitchBook’s PE Breakdown Report. Just 46 funds were closed totaling $45 billion, and much of that was cinched up in January or February. For context, last year’s figures were 249 funds totaling $315 billion,…

Exits are already down Download PitchBook’s Report here. Exit activity is bound for a tough year, as preliminary Q1 numbers confirm. Historically, first quarter exit totals are typically on the low end anyway; it’s common to see a lull coming off of fourth quarter sprints. Q1 2020 was slow even by that forgiving standard, down 37.3%…

When buyout funds face a crisis Download PitchBook’s Report here. The Financial Crisis of 2008 was a manmade one, which gave us a degree of confidence that strict regulatory changes could prevent a sequel. The current crisis arose from nature itself, which is quite a bit harder to regulate. The impact of this crisis is changing…

Competing interests for private equity Download PitchBook’s Report here. Private equity has lots of money at the ready—the question is what they will use it for. In the months ahead, investors will be looking at an unprecedented opportunity to buy. On the other hand, they’re also in very familiar territory of keeping their current crop of…