Is the PE industry on pace for lower net cash flows?

Since 2012, net cash flows of private equity funds worldwide have been positive, with the last three full years handily exceeding $130 billion apiece. With fund returns through the middle of 2016, however, net cash flows currently stand at $27.0 billion, putting the back half of 2016 under considerable stress to even leave the year at more than $100 billion. This diminishing metric is attributable to a variety of factors, including the slow winding down of the buyout cycle in addition to a sluggish exit market...

Plenty of value yet to be realized in older PE vintages

In the world of private equity, the long-persisting effects of the financial crisis are still evident, particularly when regarding fund returns from certain, most affected vintages. Funds from vintages between 2007 and 2009 inclusive still possess plenty of value yet to be realized, having taken relatively longer to build up total value to paid-in capital multiples given the effects of the crisis. In fact, the sizable disparity between what has been able to be realized thus far between funds of the 2009 vintage...

On a long enough horizon, returns for PE funds of all sizes converge

By and large, the macroeconomic environment remains the most significant factor to bear in mind when assessing long-term private equity fund performance. Given the impact of the financial crisis, it makes sense that no matter the size of the fund in question, at the longest time horizon—10 years—internal rates of return (IRRs) have by and large converged. Following the typical J-curve of fund performance, at that point in the conventional fund lifecycle most assets that end up contributing to the majority of a fund’s return have already been sold...

Recent PE vintages outpace public indices by a smaller margin

Private equity funds of vintages 2005 and prior exhibit significant outperformance of public indices, employing the Russell 3000 Index for public market equivalents calculations. Since then, however, no vintage has exceeded 8% over public indices’ performance. There are many factors behind this particular trend, not the least of which is the impact of the financial crisis, which prolonged holding periods as managers worked to proof impacted companies...

Longer fundraising times indicate future for PE fund managers?

The time between closing of funds was by far the longest of the decade for private equity fund managers last year, whether you looked at the median or the mean. Especially in the wake of the significant uptick in 2015 the increase is striking, and adds considerable color to the current fundraising scene. Firstly, in light of fund sizes creeping upward by and large, the simple fact that it takes longer to raise a larger fund should be noted...

Demand for PE exposure to slacken eventually?

In 2016, 87.6% of private equity funds that closed in North America and Europe hit or exceeded their targets. Even compared to the heights of 2014 and 2015, that figure represents a clear high of the decade, and, moreover, the extent to which limited partners of multiple types are eager for exposure to the PE asset class. Given that 356 funds closed in 2016—a lower tally than observed in any of the three preceding years—but the average fund size soared to nearly $765 million...

PE-backed exits trend down in size

For the second year in a row, the median private equity-backed exit in North America and Europe has trended downward in size across all three primary routes of liquidity. The typical corporate acquisition in 2016 cleared $138.1 million, a 13.7% decline from the $160 million notched in 2015. After the significant growth in median exit sizes from roughly 2013 to 2015, it is important to note that the numbers recorded in 2016 were still aligned somewhat with those seen in 2010 and 2011. Given that these figures are still relatively healthy on a historical basis...

Steady volume of funds geared toward US lower middle market

Since 2013, a significant uptick in the number of private equity funds geared toward the lower middle market—sized between $100 million and $500 million, according to PitchBook methodology—has occurred. 2013 was undoubtedly a peak, with 107 closed in that year alone, but the volume has hardly slackened much since, as 94 vehicles were wrapped in 2016. One driver of this trend has undoubtedly been the entrance of new fund managers into the market...

Will elevated US PE inventory contribute to continued secondary buyout activity?

It is difficult to get a sense of just how many middle-market companies there are in the US, which is a critical statistic to have on hand when analyzing the impact of the heightened private equity inventory. According to a recent installment of the Middle Market Power Index from American Express and Dun & Bradstreet, there were 182,578 firms that had between $10 million and $999 million in revenue in 2016...

Transaction sizes suggest relative US middle-market popularity for PE

The median private equity transaction with a US middle-market company fell slightly to $134.0 million in 2016, down a mere $4 million from the prior year. Given the minuscule magnitude of the decline, it's clear that there is still plenty of competition from not only strategic acquirers in the upper end of the market but also fellow PE firms that are keeping transaction sizes relatively high, among other factors...