Fed Up, Slow Down

What made Kane Tanaka so special? As the oldest living person on the planet until her passing last month, Tanaka-san was born (January 2, 1903) almost a year before the Wright Brothers’ historic first flight at Kitty Hawk. Her secret to a long life? “Being myself.”

Sticking to your knitting was top of mind this week as we prepped to chair the Private Credit Investor Summit in West Palm Beach. The conference features an impressive speaker list, largely LPs and asset managers. Attendees and panelists represent a wide spectrum of strategies, belying the view that private credit is crowded with firms “doing the same thing.”

The timing is also propitious. The past several weeks have witnessed an interesting market move in public assets. Equity indices have reversed course since the May 20th bottom, with the Dow up 7.6% and NASDAQ 10% higher.

In part this is due to a a change of perception regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rates. As discussed in a excellent FT commentary, the conversation has moved from ‘Is the Fed too late?’ to ‘What happens if they catch up?’ Rather than higher inflation and higher rates, markets are pricing in slowing inflation and the chances of a recession.