Indecision 2020

It’s characteristic of the most bizarre year in memory that the presidential election has ended with a big “TBD.” An unsurprising outcome given the dynamics of voter turnout and mail-in ballots, as well as an almost perfectly polarized political climate.

What continues to surprise is how little impact this uncertainty has had on the capital markets. At this writing the Dow is up over 2000 points since last Friday, heading towards the 29,000 territory it reached in September. Bond yields sank only mildly on views a divided government was bearish for any immediate stimulus package.

Meanwhile both high-yield bond and large cap loan issuance continue apace. October’s junk volume of $34.2 billion (per S&P LCD) was the second highest October, after 2012’s $40.4 billion. BSL activity reached about $44 billion for the month – with September’s $50 billion, the best two-month performance since pre-COVID.