Of Rates and Recessions (Last of a Series)

We conclude our unpacking of the rich content delivered by our three top economists in last month’s exclusive webinar [link] by looking at global policies.

The Fed is way ahead of the other central banks in its quantitative tightening and rate hike program. The ECB is “dithering” and the BOE not well organized. Japan continues to maintain a very easy rate policy. The Brazil’s Banco Central has hiked rates by over 1000 bps, and markets have rewarded them, helped by energy exports to China.

China over the last twenty-five years has been the engine of global growth. No longer. It suffers from deep-seated problems, economic weakness has been persistent, and real estate is showing symptoms of over-investment. Which is problematic because over 80% of households invested in real estate.