Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (First of a Series)

Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even watching his Mission Impossible and Top Gun acrobatics over the years, we figured riskier sequences involved some kind of green screen technology. Until we saw practice runs for his motorcycle jump on the latest MI thriller.

This astounding daredevil performance (Cruise did six takes to get the perfect shot) was not even the highlight stunt of the film. Yet it shows how with repetition comes reputation. In the world of private credit, experienced managers have been executing tricky maneuvers for years, with a select few doing so before and through the GFC. Practicing the minutest details of sound underwriting and careful portfolio construction eventually pays off in premium track records. 

Last week we attended Moody’s first New York private credit conference – Credit Frontiers 2025. Panelists see growth, convergence, and risk as major themes for the asset class. Other dynamics include liquidity, leverage and transparency. Convergence means partnerships with significant asset users such as insurance companies leading to more innovations. It also suggests private markets will look a lot more like public markets, and vice-versa.