What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the year? Those were the among the questions posed to your correspondent and three other panelists at Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How Private Credit and Banks Traversed the Tariff Storm to a Brighter Second Half.”

We’ve discussed here at length the implications and effects of tariffs on the credit market. More interesting for readers was the panel discussion of what has been a full recovery from April’s Liberation Day. At least one measure of this confidence was July’s US leveraged loan activity of $222 billion, the largest monthly number ever recorded. As our Chart of the Week highlights, eight of the top ten busiest months came since January of 2024, according to Bloomberg. 

One speaker attributed the abruptly risk-on market to “the tariff range of outcomes narrowing materially,” with “no massive tail risk” at this point. High-yield bond spreads have returned close to where they were at the beginning of the year. July’s BSL market is showing “the tightest spreads since the GFC.” How does double Bs at S+175, single Bs at 225-250, and B3s in the upper 200s, grab you?