Market Outlook

2017 – A Look Ahead (Third of a Series)

Last week we punctured the myth that the influx of new private debt funds is creating excess demand for the level of deal supply of middle market senior loans [link]. We now turn our attention to credit quality. How will this year fare for credit investors relative to years past, and expectations? First, let’s separate

2017 - A Look Ahead (Second of a Series)

Last week we ventured some thoughts on where this year would take us on middle market deal terms – pricing, leverage, structures, and covenants [link]. This week we examine the supply and demand technicals we expect will drive those terms. First, let’s dispel the persistent myth of too much cash chasing too few deals. Last

2017 – A Look Ahead (First of a Series)

If we learned one thing in 2016, it was that predictions of many sorts went awry. From national departures from economic unions, to presidential elections, to World Series champions, the unlikely became reality. With that in mind, we will offer in this series some thoughts on what’s to come this year in middle market lending,

What’s Ahead for 2015? (Last of a Series)

As oil prices continue to drop, taking other asset values with them, capital markets are beginning the new year sorting through what this all means for them. In high yield land, while secondary prices for energy credits took it on the chin in early December, the overall theme is “recovery.” As junk guru Martin Fridson

What's Ahead for 2015? (Third of a Series)

We had planned on concluding our 2015 predictions with a forecast of structure and pricing in leveraged loans. But market developments compel us to address first what could a factor in changing both those elements dramatically next year. Like all things unexpected, the precipitous drop in oil prices could have been foreseen if you knew

What’s Ahead for 2015? (Part Two)

One of the enduring mysteries of life, other than the fact that Kanye West is Bruce Jenner’s son-in-law, is getting a handle on deal supply in the leveraged loan markets. By the numbers, the forward institutional pipeline has been drifting south since Labor Day. According to S&P Capital IQ, last week’s calendar stood at $40

What’s Ahead for 2015? (Part One)

We had just polished off our second helping of pumpkin pie last Thursday evening when the first (of what we assume will be many) “2015 Market Outlook” hit our in-box. Always big supporters of the crystal ball crowd, we thought we’d begin our own prognostication series by sharing some of the contents of that forecast