The Market Now (Last of a Series)

While the war in Ukraine grinds along amid depressing headlines, investors of all stripes are settling into the view that economic effects of the war will be more local than widespread (see our Quote of the Week).

Public equities in particular have recovered their value since Russia’s invasion of February 24, having priced in, for the moment, the likeliest worst-case scenario.

Credit investors are more focused on the hawkish post-hike commentary from Fed Chair Powell. Perhaps in response to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s lone dissent, voicing the need for a more aggressive stance, Powell said “If we think it’s appropriate to raise [by a half a point]…we will do so.”

Observers have also noted the further flattening of the Treasury yield curve, with two-year rates edging up in response to Powell’s statement. That trend has raised concerns of an inverted yield curve and the signal that historically sends of a potential slowdown.