The New Paradigm (First of a Series)

This week we chaired Day One of SuperReturn’s Private Credit US conference in New York. It’s a measure of the popularity of the asset class (and the outstanding agenda) that the auditorium was standing room only. Not including other SuperReturn strategy sessions on another floor.

In preparing for the opening keynote, we gave thought to how far private credit had come since 2022’s conference last September. Back then the Fed had only boosted rates about halfway towards its goal (so far) of 5.5% today. And inflation was just under 8%, compared to 3.7% (by one measure) and 2.4% (by another).

Since then, investors and credit analysts have had time to ponder the impact of those high rates on leveraged loan portfolios. They’ve also seen their effect on bank balance sheets. But so far, given the record pace of the Fed’s tightening, including its QT regime, it’s also been a remarkably stable approach to what increasingly appears to be a soft landing.