When a company announces that it is increasing the amount paid out to shareholders, it is not typically greeted with enthusiasm by credit investors. But Glencore is no ordinary company in the CDS world, and its announcement on December 1 wasn’t a standard chance in financial policy.

The Swiss firm said that it would be resuming dividend payments after a hiatus of more than a year. Back in September 2015, Glencore was under enormous pressure as it groaned under the weight of its high debt burden and struggled to cope with falling commodity prices. Five-year CDS spreads widened from 350bps to 850bps in the space of two weeks...

The European Commission announced on November 23 a banking reform package that will result in changes to the CRR and CRD IV capital requirement legislation, as well as changes to the BRRD and SRMR legislation relating to recovery and resolution of failing financial institutions. The package is very broad, so we won’t attempt to comment on all of the measures.

But one change under the BRRD caught our eye, as it will have a material impact on how the bond market – and possibly the CDS market - trades. The EC proposes a harmonised framework for bondholder hierarchy...

We noted last month that realised volatility in the European investment grade CDS market, as measured by the Markit VolX index, was at its lowest for two years. By the end of October, volatility had dipped to 18%, which was the lowest level since the heady days of June 2007. A number of future events were mooted that had the potential to trigger market uncertainty, including next month’s Italian referendum.

But a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election was viewed by most as a highly unlikely occurrence. Spreads rallied in the run up to the vote, with the Markit CDX.NA.IG tightening from...