Private Credit and Business Cycles (Second of a Series)

Timing in private credit investing is an important part of decision making for asset managers. Having a view on where we are in the business cycle and how close we are to the next downturn helps frame decisions on specific credits, particularly those in more cyclical industries.

In mezzanine investing, timing is essential. 2006 sub debt fund vintages were excellent, but if you were investing mezz in 2006, you might have had a rough ride.

Preston Walsh, a partner at PNC Mezzanine, talked to us recently about the firm’s upcoming annual survey of mezzanine investors. The 2016 version will be unveiled at the May 17-18 Atlantic Conferences Symposium on Mezzanine and Middle Market Debt Finance. [link], but Walsh gave us a sneak preview of the results.

“The deal flow was certainly off from 2105, but for mezzanine deals it was challenging,” he told us. ”Sponsors are certainly looking for opportunities. Bankers are getting maximum valuations on companies deemed to be attractive. The ones that don’t fit that description come with issues. The survey will show that.”