Default Rate

Private Credit and Business Cycles (Last of a Series)

The question of where we are in the business cycle may ultimately be answered only in hindsight. Similarly what triggers the next cycle will likely different than what set off previous downturns. Subprime mortgages, tech, or sovereign defaults will probably not be culprits, though fallen energy credits could certainly qualify. Given the mature recovery, credit

Private Credit and Business Cycles (Second of a Series)

Timing in private credit investing is an important part of decision making for asset managers. Having a view on where we are in the business cycle and how close we are to the next downturn helps frame decisions on specific credits, particularly those in more cyclical industries. In mezzanine investing, timing is essential. 2006 sub

Private Credit and Business Cycles (First of a Series)

Just when we thought we were out of the economic woods with a strong report on April jobless claims (lowest since 1973), there came the 1Q GDP report showing anemic growth of 0.5%. That was enough to send equities down over 1% for the week. This good news-bad news pattern is discouragingly familiar to market