Commentary

2022 Capital Markets Outlook (Third of a series)

This week Churchill’s Kelli Marti and Jessica Nels continue their special series on the capital markets outlook for 2022 [link] with a discussion of the unitranche trend. Once considered a novel concept, the unitranche – a one-stop senior secured financing melding senior and subordinated tranches into one – has captured the attention of private equity…

2022 Capital Markets Outlook (Second of a series)

Churchill’s Kelli Marti and Jessica Nels continue their commentaries related to the firm’s 2022 Capital Markets Outlook [link]: From loan issuance, to LBO and M&A activity, to record CLO volume, 2021 was an unprecedented year in many forms. Coming off that record-breaking activity, we consider what lies ahead in 2022. In December 2021, our content…

2022 Capital Markets Outlook (First of a series)

In our 2022 Capital Markets Outlook, we discussed expectations for the year ahead. Topics included covenant-lite loans, inflation and rising interest rates, the LIBOR/SOFR transition, the heightened prevalence of unitranche loans and the continued focus on ESG. Kelli Marti, Churchill’s head of CLO management, and Jessica Nels, capital markets, begin a series of market commentaries…

“Slower, But Still Pretty Fast”

We caught up recently with our chief investment strategist at Nuveen, Brian Nick, for a conversation on markets and the economy: “We are at an inflection point in two important respects; first, 4Q was the best quarter of 2021 from a GDP perspective. Last year growth was 5.5%, best since 1984. But even if we…

Risky Loans? Think Again

For private capital veterans, the recent spate of market volatility is another opportunity to show strength relative to public asset classes. The threat of higher interest rates, abetted by spiking inflation, is now fully absorbed in the market. After a rocky week for the Dow and Nasdaq, indices firmed. But uncertainty still reigns and investors…

All Ahead Full: Private Credit Outlook 2022 (Last of a Series)

We planned last year to publish a special series on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). Unlike most topics in our commentaries, the origins and complexities of ESG were unfamiliar. To the rescue came our Nuveen colleagues, a Responsible Investing team of close to thirty ESG professionals. Of course, risk management is core to Churchill’s own…

All Ahead Full: Private Credit Outlook 2022 (Fifth of a Series)

Inflation and interest rates are linked, but not always in straightforward ways. Fear of higher prices can drive rates up, while markets may ignore actual inflation having anticipated it. This year we devoted a special series to inflation (link) and, with expert help from our favorite economists, have written extensively about rate expectations. Recent data…